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Document Type |
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Thesis |
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Document Title |
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DETERMINING THE SOURCES OF INFLATION IN SAUDI ARABIA تحديد مصادرالتضخم في المملكة العربية السعودية |
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Subject |
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Faculty of Economics and Management |
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Document Language |
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Arabic |
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Abstract |
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The main objective of this study is to determine the sources of inflation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the period (1986-2018). Among these sources are internal sources such as the money supply and the real non-oil GDP, and external sources such as the actual real exchange rate of the riyal and import prices. In order to achieve this goal, a standard model was formulated consisting of a single equation through which we can explain the behavior of inflation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the model consisted of sources Internal sources of inflation included money supply and real non-oil GDP, and external sources that included the actual real exchange rate of the riyal and import prices.
In this study, the extent of the effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary policy in controlling inflation and driving economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was touched upon. The phenomenon of merging the fiscal and monetary policy in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was also addressed.
Within the framework of the standard aspect of this study: Test of Stationary was tested for all time-series observations of model variables before model estimation, co-integration and partial adaptation model estimation.
The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, which is one of the unit root tests, was used in this study. The test results showed that all the data of the model variables in its logarithmic form are stable at the first difference. This enables us to estimate the search model using the squares method without encountering the false regression phenomenon.
The results of estimating the model using the regular small squares method indicated that the internal sources of inflation in the Kingdom, such as the money supply and the non-oil GDP, have a positive and significant impact on the behavior of inflation. As for the external sources of inflation, such as the actual real exchange rate of the riyal on inflation, it was positive and significant. The imports were not significant, and the results showed an increase in the value of the coefficient of determination (R ^ 2 = 0.94) and the value of the test (F = 123) and a decrease in the value of the standard error of the model, indicating that the explanatory variables explained a 94% change in the behavior of inflation, as the results indicated. Inflation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a monetary phenomenon, as the money supply has a strong influence on the behavior of inflation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and thus it can be said that inflation in the Kingdom is a monetary phenomenon and this is consistent with many previous studies on inflation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as the integration test showed The common existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the model variables.
As the Partial Adjustment Model indicated that the flexibility of the study variables is of high statistical significance, and the partial adjustment model indicated that inflation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia takes a year and seven months to reach the level of stability (balance) |
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Supervisor |
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Dr. Khalid Abdul Rahman Al - Bassam |
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Thesis Type |
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Master Thesis |
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Publishing Year |
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1442 AH
2021 AD |
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Added Date |
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Monday, September 6, 2021 |
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Researchers
| أحمد ثاري الرشيدي | Al-Rashidi, Ahmed Thari | Researcher | Master | |
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